"They won't miss me"

It's a comforting thought when you're writing the excuse. There'll be thirty people there. Nobody will notice one fewer. Your colleague will be surrounded all night and won't give you a thought.

In one sense you're right, and chapter 2 gave the evidence. Givi and Kirk found that a declined invitation does much less damage than the person declining fears. Your colleague wasn't hurt by Thursday's message. She read it, thought "that's a shame", and went back to her packing.

But "they won't miss me" isn't quite the same claim as "they won't be angry", and it's less true. Think about how an invitation comes about. Someone made a list, and you were on it. For the leaving drinks that may have been the whole office. For the fortieth, your friend sat down and chose the people she wanted in the room, and she wanted you. An invitation is a small statement that your company is liked. The habit hears that statement and responds as if it were a threat.

The pattern matters more than any one refusal. What follows is my own observation, and I've no study for it. People who get three or four refusals in a row from someone don't usually take offence. They draw a kinder conclusion, which does more harm. They decide that you don't enjoy that sort of thing, or that you're very busy, or that you've got a lot on at home.

So they stop asking, meaning to be considerate, since it seems pointless to keep putting you in the position of having to say no. From where you sit, the invitations simply thin out. It can look like proof that people never much wanted you there. They did want you there, and they stopped because you taught them to.

Small occasions are where absence shows most. Thirty people at a pub can absorb a gap. At a dinner for six it shows. And the things that matter most to the people holding them are usually the ones where your absence is felt most. A wedding or a funeral is like that, and so is a fortieth, or the last night before someone moves away. People often remember for years who came to those.

There's something on the other side of this that the habit never counts. Turning up is one of the simplest ways of showing someone they matter to you. You don't have to be sparkling. Your colleague won't remember what you said on Friday. She'd have remembered that you were there, that you gave her a hug, and that you stayed for a drink. If you're there for an hour you've given her nearly all of that.